Silevo, an upstart californian entity, came out of stealth mode today to announce a new solar cell technology, with promise to reach $0.69 per watt in high production quantity volumes.
So in doing some math, current silicon technology is at around $0.80 currently. With Chinese manufacturing plans and venture backing, it would appear that we will be heading farther south, not only because supply and demand is off balance, but also because technology will drive it there.
This means that the only true profits will remain in the upstream installation and financing areas, and as First Solar did, I expect other makers to start gobbling up local and regional installers to own more of the value chain where margin remains available.
The race to the bottom continues and looks like it will plateau at around just under $1.00, until such time as more technology improvements drive further reductions. At some point, unless something radically changes form factor and materials, we’ll be at that level for a while….
Sass