There was a day when you could simply say that thin film technology was “amorphous” in its composition. And yet in recent years ,many new combinations appeared such as CIGS, CdTE, CIS.
Of these “exotic” thin films, only CdTE seems to have been able to make itself work affordably, primarily by First Solar in the USA. Shell never grew its CIS plant and the only CIGS really on the market in any decent way is the flexible kind meant for specialty applications.
Amorphous silicon has stayed quite steady for the better of thirty years and yet now is about to change as well. We see Applied Films and Unaxis pressing their “micromorph” equipment solutions, while others like Kaneka have developed their own inhouse process and are already putting them out onto the market. These modules give the best of both worlds in terms of light exposure. The benefits of how well amorphous silicon captures low daylight with the stability factor of crystalline. In layman terms, the micromorph is a combination technology which uses a bit of crystalline and amorphous silicon in its composition.
The benefit of using an amorphous silicon backbone is that the technology and its profitable manufacturability are already quite proven. An with numbers showing a 10% stable rating, the panels will now be able to reach 100W stable (with known technology) within a couple of years. With a labor, materials and utilities cost of under US$0.70 per watt, you can then see why there are predictions that thinfilm will take 20% of the market by 2010.
This also creates the need for equipment makers to realize that “5MW” increments are no longer suitable for today’s new environment. Whereas people used to shy away from building more than 5MW because the market had not quite accepted amorphous as a viable alternative in the grid (largest chunk of market) sector, that thinking no longer applies today. It means that platforms that build 20MW as a minimum are likely to be the most economical in the future.
With the entry of new exotic thin films from all over (Japan, Germany, USA, South Africa, Switzerland) we are going to see a revolution in the industry and finally a lot more momentum towards “real world ratings” than ever before as the larger thin film players vie for a level playing field when it comes to measuring solar performance.
As someone who has been in thinfilm for over 18 years, I’m excited by this prospect of a rush of new capacity in this area. Is it a threat to my company, ICP Solar? Frankly, I see this as a challenge in which we must make the right decisions to assure our success in the future.
Sass