With GE planning to produce over 400MW of 14% CdTE thin-film modules in Colorado by next June, the game continues to get riskier for ventures that find themselves below those figures. As much as you can tread water at 12-14% with a cost base near $0.75 for some CdTe and aSi makers, the reality is that you can’t make money because the balance of system cost involved in supporting lower efficiency panels will now more than make up for their slightly lower cost.
So if you are a thin-film maker in China, producing older technologies, either partner with someone else who has a better technology or get out now, before you squander any more cash on facilities that simply won’t pay back.
The game has changed so much in the four years past, that technologies which were seen as cutting edge as little as three years ago, are now simply outdated. To continue to compete with giants like GE will require huge resource drains and distract teams from the other parts of the value chains where money is to be made still.
Value added products, that take advantage of lower solar panel costs are where its at. Services providing uplifting experiences for clients is what is required to maintain market share. And innovation in the sales cycle to get to the market more efficiently and with greater use of software technology tools will be key to long term success.
GE threw down the gauntlet. First Solar is definitely feeling the pressure. Many others are simply quietly trying to figure out what to do. 2011 will go down as one of the toughest in the industry…yet through this the strong will emerge stronger and wiser.