I’m here at the SAE Conference, the world’s largest automotive engineering trade show. Sadly, the industry’s woes are reflected in a poorly attended show, both on vendor and customer side.
The auto industry is a good example from which the solar industry can learn a few tricks. It is continuing to undergo change despite its maturity, as the customer dictates who will survive and who won’t. If we look at how Detroit is losing out to Kentucky, simply because that is where the Japanese established themselves, then we can see mirrors in what is going to happen in solar, once the “glut” hits.
The fact is that General Motors commands a big part of the mood in this town, so you can imagine just how it is right now. While Chrysler was gobbled up by a European (Daimler), Ford made a good move with Mazda, GM is laden with far too many “american” divisions, each with its own costly infrastructure, doubling up charges and creating a huge, giant sucking sound of money. Analyzing why they got there would be a great lesson for the solar industry.
When the Japanese began to invade the western markets, they did not do so with shoddy quality. They did it with “fair” quality, yet at a great price. Then they moved up the ladder as they established themselves to be much more “in tune” with consumer demand than the american counterparts. And finally they took over the “lifestyle” approach of the Europeans when they were able to make cars to fit every lifestyle from the budget to the super rich.
Meantime, Detroit struggled to find itself. The lesson here is about the customer and what happens when a paradigm shift occurs due to a disruptive event. In the case of solar, I believe that disruptive event (on a macro basis) will be a glut of cells available post-2008 due to new disruptive technologies coming into the industry pool. It will then be up to each company to have created an image for itself within the crowd and a clear path to exceeding expectations each time it rises up the quality and feature ladder. Flat, standard modules may be the kings now, yet when new technologies with different colors, form factors and usability appear, they will be simply left to the commodity players.
Don’t get me wrong, there is a commodity play in power, as the oil and utility companies prove out so often every day. However I also believe that this industry will utilize some of the lessons from the car folks and create targeted applications for specialized cell formulations. Now that’s when the buzz about who has figured out the customer will likely dominate the solar industry, rather than the buzz about the shortage of cells that we are currently living.
Sass