Ouch! is what we could hear ATS Automation shareholders across the world say when they heard of the over $60million write-down for investments in the Spheral Solar Technology they bought from OPG a few years ago. In the same release, they spoke of further investments into the Photowatt facility in France which is working at full capacity producing standard poly cells.
Spheral technology was originally developed by Texas Instruments and had been mothballed until a manager at ATS decided it was their ticket to success in Canada to develop and manufacture a new disruptive technology which would use a fraction of the silicon required. He definitely had foresight in terms of the shortage of polysilicon we are faced with today, yet they all vastly underestimated the difficulties in putting this technology into a “profitably reproduceable format”.
Note the first word in the quotes..”profitably”. Herein lies the essence of the challenge for any disruptive technology that will come into the solar arena. There are many new technologies that promise better low light power, better full light power, better shaded performance, etc. and in the labs, researchers are able to prove reproduceability day in and day out in small sections. The real key is that if the production methodology is not proven out, then you have a huge potential risk. In the case of Spheral, NOBODY had ever produced it properly. The japanese tried and failed.
I can understand ATS Automation thinking that given its long history in production automation, that it could do what it took to make the process work. However I suspect that they have been so aggressive with the writedown because they frankly no longer believe it can work. Down the tubes goes about $20M of Canadian government funding with this promised project.
Oh well, I guess we’ll have to wait for another of the promising technologies to really undo the damage to the solar market that the polysilicon market is creating.
I am not happy that ATS is making these announcements. It doesn’t look good on them nor on the Canadian industry or taxpayers. I do not revel in the pains of others (even competitors), yet it is a lesson that we need to learn from moving forward. It will surely also make venture capital partners wake up to the risks of investing in such disruptive technologies in the future.
Sass
4 Comments
Last Febrary I had an opportunity to visit the SSP in Cambridge. I was very impressed by their machines and equipments (Automation!!!).
As a silicon solar cell engineer, it seems to me that they have an enormous potential once they will be able to solve the problems related to the one specific process. I don’t know how the current status are about that issue. However I’m sure that they are now probably very close to their goal, because I think the issue is, in fact, nothing but to finding the critical parameters. For this, there are many systematic and statistical methodologies such as six sigma, kaisen, etc…. Of course the most important thing is the manpower that I think they need most.
SASS COMMENT:
I would love to believe that they are close to their goal. Ifhowever that was true, why would they lay almost everyone off? I don’t mean for my blog to become destructive postulation, yet its obvious that the issues are more serious than previously thought or presented as. I do wish them luck. I don’t wish any competitor bad luck, only an ethical and fair playing field on which we can all grow. Thanks.
That’s discouraging to read – I’m looking to invest in a solar system sometime in the next few years, and some speedy advance before that point would make the investment hurt a lot less
SASS COMMENT:
Don’t worry! There are plenty of other offerings that WILL make it happen which will bring the cost down.
Sass
Your investing in a great environmental friendly
business;finaly lets get rid of the fuel oil of
which prices are artificially too high for underdeveloped countries;keep up the good work
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Automation is the only disruptive technology available to these manufactures with cell efficiency way down, cost per watt to high and quality in the 1970’s?