SunbitsA blog about our life, our sun, our energy.

You know why? Take a read to understand a bit of the mythology of the brand. A great read and so true.

You’ll notice that I haven’t blogged in about a week as I was travelling. The question becomes what is the best use of time and what I am blogging for when I have Twitter and Facebook to manage as well? Sharing information, and getting reactions to what I post, has taught me much about myself and the people who read my blog, yet I am not sure that blogging here is the path forward, as a new career restarts.

The reality is that social network sites have changed the manner in which we get our information and seek it out. A blog can remain a central repository of that information, yet the current mechanics that I have made tweeting or FB posts much easier to manage, so perhaps the secret lies in having a better mobile platform with which to blog, and that can immediately post to twitter and facebook.

The world of solar power and emobility are indeed colliding, as a series of meetings with major car companies proved to me last week. The question is only to find the manner and place in which to interject innovation and process for companies trying to figure it out on their own.

Sass

Hydro Quebec and a number of future thinking partners announced at the Montreal Auto Show a large EV infrastructure program in Montreal and Quebec City for EV chargers. Its a “pay as you go” approach with a very simple fee of $2.50 per “fill up”. Quite a bargain if you use the Nissan Leaf and it takes you over 100 miles or Volt which can go about 40 or so…

This is just the beginning of how utilities can partner with retailers to get into the infrastructure game, create more loyal customers and empower their sustainability messaging.

It will be interesting to follow the roll out and see where it goes. At least its got me thinking that I really need to start thinking about going electric in the next go-around of car shopping…

Sass

CES is the largest electronics trade fair in North America, and it happens once per year in Las Vegas. Hundreds of thousands of buyers, media, vendors and others flock to the mecca of sin in order to get a glimpse of things which won’t be on the market for months, or perhaps never reach us.

Is it worth it? This article says NO,  yet I’m not so sure. I remember the best successes we had was when we really had something “different” to flaunt. It was not about how big a booth we had, yet more about what manner we went about distinguishing ourselves through product or message from the pack.

Writers run around seeking “scoops” and want to show what is really cool and new. It is up to small exhibitors to get their attention in manners that are affordable, specially when giants are paying high prices for their PR agents to do the same.

Personally, I still see value in it, yet its not as obvious as the show promoters would have you think. Microsoft quit the show, and its stock has not plummeted. Yet has its “cache”?

Sass

Foxconn is getting into the solar module making game.

The maker of iPhones is used to working on razor-thin margins and will change the game for the industry. While most module makers are used to making margins north of 20%, the entry of mass market players like Foxconn will drive costs down, take out inefficient module makers and encourage installation by a further reduction in market pricing.

Add into the mix recent announcements by Oerlikon, GE and Panasonic, all targeting well under $1 cost per watt for finished modules, it would seem to mean that the days of solar modules costing over $1 are over. The addition of 800MW of capacity by GE and Panasonic alone will ode badly for small to midlevel players who have taken a “commodity” approach to the business, yet it will feed an industry into deeper market penetration as the cost of solar approaches, and in some markets beats, the cost of other grid-tied utility rates.

2012 is certainly looking to be a game changer for the market. Many in 2011 had said that they expected pricing to firm up given the fact that many players have closed and more will close, however I do not think that we’ll see that happening. Despite solar wafer makers attempts to negotiate higher prices, they have not been successful so far. What we will see is a firming of pricing around the $0.75 (thin film) to $0.90 (crystalline) marks and this until further reductions in costs are brought by firms such as Foxconn. They are possibly the first contract manufacturer to get into the game in a big way, yet they won’t be the last.

Sass

BP Solar is going to be no more. According to this article, BP is calling it quits on solar power after decades in the game.

I visited BP’s Maryland factory about 15 years ago. I met with their President who proceeded to tell me that it was OK that they were losing hundreds of millions of dollars because it was still cheaper for BP than a big ad campaign stating they were “green”. Such “in your face” greenwashing, I had never encountered, yet it was a reality-check as to why an oil company would be involved in solar power.

Were they trying to advance implementation? Not really.

Were they trying to advance the state of the art? Not at all.

Did they ever really care? Who knows.

With this further reduction in the uncompetitive field, the continuing consolidation of “me too” players, and the introduction of mammoth capacities by companies like GE and Panasonic, the solar panel is finally becoming like the microchip…a product dominated by a few main players, a couple of niche players…and that’s about it. The recent price drops have been very instrumental in helping companies understand that a me-t00 approach only gets you so far during the good times, yet it kills you in the tough ones.

Stay tuned…I suspect we’ll see more and more announcements like this to close out the calendar year.

So many companies recently have attempted either to relaunch manufacturing lines or to launch new ones, unsuccessfully, in the energy sector, that it makes us wonder if manufacturing of new technology is too risky for America.

This article is a great illustration of the risks involved in too much distance from a manufacturing infrastructure. It can lead companies (such as Solyndra and Evergreen) to look dynamic and innovative, when in fact the support for their new technologies is simply not there. There will be far more failures than successes in a “go it alone” philosophy.

Sunlogics attempt to restart old manufacturing processes, under the philosophy that it could go alone simply because it had a captive client, proved false. The reality is that the market shifted on it, yet this was all happening before they closed their agreements. While plans plowed forward as if the rest of the market is unimportant,  the fact is that others (GE) were announcing huge plans in technologies far superior.

So companies like Sunlogics and Solyndra are basically doomed to failure if they don’t participate in a “group cluster” of support for production of technologies which face asian cost challenges. This brings to mind how the Japanese government basically dictates direction to its small cluster of major companies and then they all get “with the program” and begin work together and separately on their individual visions of how to achieve what the government directs them to do. Its a more “central government” directed method which has proven itself successful for the japanese and now the chinese.

As the article says, innovation in manufacturing is possible in the USA, however it requires that groups work together rather than apart, and that is a big challenge for companies which are so used to shunning “not made here” innovation.

Facebook underwhelms with latest financials. Not good news for an IPO valuation. The fact is that more and more people are telling me they spend less and less time on FB. Seems that they are getting a bit tired of watching everyone’s personal billboard or latest pictures with dog, new girlfriend (or boyfriend) that is the better model than the ex, or kids who just peed in the parking lot corner. OH! How Cute!

The reality is that more and more younger demographics are gravitating to Twitter where its short, sweet and your favourite rock or TV star just told you what they are eating!

Really have to start to wonder if “social media” is reaching some sort of peak and what lies in store beyond. The mavens in gaming are still betting on Facebook yet are starting to look at options like their own web interfaces and Google +.

I would say that FB will have to do some good spinning of why these numbers came in weak if its IPO valuation is to stay sky high…

Yup, you read it right! The cost of solar has dropped not only because of dropping solar panel prices, yet because we’ve found some really neat technologies which bring down the entire value chain cost while delivering technologically superior solutions.

If you know anyone interested…send me a note! More information will be posted on renewz.com when its up…

Sass

PS. There’s financing in leasing or PPA’s available too!

Zynga, now at over 200million, is said to possibly double its users as Facebook grows and gets more aggressive with its credits program.

Since the average user spends about $1-2 per month, you can do the math and see how suddenly social gaming is a huge opportunity for those who can pull it off. Zynga happens to be the leader in the industry and has proven that its not always about the best looking or most strategic games. Its about how to extract money from users day after day, month after month.

The facebook gamer is not the typical gamer and the approach must be different. Those involved in hardcore gaming try, yet they rarely succeed to completely move over to the “social side”. So many great games have not made it commercially because of the lack of market understanding. Yet Zynga seems to have taken a very sensible approach to the beta stages of various games (usually hidden) and game concept to begin with. I suspect their IPO will do well and will propel them to yet even higher ground.

With our game Greenspace revamp, the graphics are amazing, it does function well, its an interesting topic, yet I wonder if we’ll get the traction without real world associations of substance and more than just “green your world” drivers (which are non-drivers for those marketing people that can relate to how hard behavioral changes are to effect, even if its just a game).

At this moment, we have about 500 monthly users (according to Facebook). With recent website enhancements, and a press release, I do hope that the numbers will grow and stick and that experienced gaming marketing resources will be brought either into the company or as associated partners. Satisfying the target market in a manner which leads them to come back day after day, month after month, is the only thing that will ensure the long term survival of a great team of developers and artists.