Silicon feedstock coming back online in 2008, yet vendors of cells requiring 8 year commitments. Why? I believe its because they know that there will be a flood of inventory starting end 2007 and that the market will be more competitive.
The issue is that if all the silicon feestock is committed, it doesn’t matter if there is more cell capacity, the price won’t budge. In come disruptive technologies. CIGS on stainless that promises 12% efficiency for less than $1 per watt. Amorphous with 8% stable on flex material for $2 per watt.
The fact is that we will have a major market disruption in 2008. Commodity price pressure will squeeze any cell maker who does not have long term contracts for both supply and demand. Yet nobody is perfect and there is no way to perfectly balance those two. The issue will be therefore how to limit damage to the bottom line.
This is when the tide may turn against anyone holding factory capacity without a guaranteed outlet. Vertical integration looks smart now, yet will it be when there is too much capacity? Or will the added demand upsurge continue to completely absorb whatever capacity the industry will bring on.
No matter what, this is going to be an interesting ride. Judging from the excitement at Kona’s Hawaii IEEE Solar Conference (from which I just returned), the industry is getting ready for major change. Anyone who knows me understands how much I embrace change. The issue is not how it affects you, but how you can use it to affect your world.
Enjoy the weekend. Here in Montreal they are predicting rain, yet I am sure I’ll manage to find some sunshine somehow.
Mahalo (thanks in hawaii),
Sass